The Untouchables

Louisville, Alone at the Top

By Caleb Musselman

Photo Cred www.gocards.com

Intro – When you win the Big East, you are going to get noticed. Bouncing around the top ten all season, the Louisville Cardinals operated behind the scenes while the big boys beat each other up like a bunch of teenagers fighting over the same girl. With Duke and Indiana getting most of the press all year, Louisville, who spent a brief week at the top spot, has been building their tournament resume. In the middle of January, Louisville started to peak just when the number ones started falling. An 11-game win streak propelled the Cardinals from a contender to the number one spot. However, with fame comes pressure and Louisville went on to lose three straight games to Syracuse, Villanova and Georgetown. As is common in the NCAA, this small skid slid Louisville out of the title question for much of the second half of the season. Now, with a 10 game winning streak including a Big East conference championship, Louisville has suddenly catapulted themselves to the number one overall seed in the Dance. With filthy guard play and some of the most dynamic and powerful frontcourt players in the nation, bracket experts are having trouble not including Louisville in their national championship game.

Now, if you are a normal human being, this year has you on the frits. My hands shook as I wrote in my picks for the Big Dance. The real question is: What can we expect from the number 1 seeds? Specifically, what can we expect from the Cardinals?

Here we go:

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First Round – vs. North Carolina A&T – Plain and simple, this is not the year that a number 1 seed falls in the first round. If it was, it would not be Louisville. Barely squeaking past Liberty in their First Four game, North Carolina A&T has a cute story, but they will lose this game by 30 points. More talented at every position including coach and water boy, Louisville will score 80 and cruise to the second round.

Second Round – vs. Colorado St./Missouri – This matchup deserves a few more words. Both of these potential opponents ranked in the top 5 in the country in rebounding. Whoa. For Colorado State, Colton Iverson (the Answer?) is their go to guy. Averaging 14.8 points and 9.8 boards per game, Iverson is a stud on the low block. With a victory over Florida in February, CSU has proven they have the capacity to bring down a giant. For Missouri, Laurence Bowers (14/6 per game) anchors an incredibly deep team. With 6 players averaging double figures in points, the Tigers seem to have a squad that could potentially make some noise. I believe Missouri will pull out the victory over CSU because of superior guard play. Specifically, Phil Pressley, who averages 7 assists per game, will give CSU fits. If they played anyone but a top seed in the second round, I’d give the Tigers a shot at the Sweet 16. Louisville has the bigs (Dieng, Mathiang, and Harrell) to match them on the boards. Further, they have one of the most dynamic point guards in the nation in Peyton Siva. In a hard-fought physical game, Louisville makes a second half run to put Missouri in the rear-view mirror.

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Sweet 16 – vs. Oklahoma St./St. Louis – In one season, the A-10 went from a non-factor to a conference with 5 legitimate tournament teams. St. Louis, the A-10 conference champ, has what it takes to beat Oklahoma St. and meet Louisville in the oh so Sweet 16. Winning 15 out of their final 16 games, the Billikens (yup, the Billikens) have come onto the Dance floor with a skip in their step. St. Louis is a well-balanced team that can stick with any team in the nation. What type of team will they struggle against? An athletic one. Well, St. Louis, Louisville is the most athletic team in the nation. Almost identical in FG%, FT% and 3PT%, on paper this matchup looks like a toss-up. What is the one thing that can’t be measured by statistics? Athleticism. I think this will be a fantastic game from beginning to end, but can’t see St. Louis being able to keep up with the Cardinals if they play their game. Russ Smith, the Cardinal’s leading scorer at 18 per game, is a pure shooter who benefits from a team with no weaknesses. Smith and Siva will dominate the backcourt and lead Louisville to a single-digit win.

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Elite 8 – vs. Duke/Michigan St. – Coach K against Coach Tom Izzo. What a Sweet 16 matchup. The beautiful thing about this game is that no matter who wins, they will be going against Rick Pitino. This side of the bracket has more big name coaches than I’ve got hairs on my head. I think Duke has been suddenly snubbed in the last week. I think they realize that too, and they are going to come out hot, hot, hot. I have them beating MSU by a hair to advance to a matchup with the Cardinals. Interesting matchup. Duke actually beat Louisville on November 24 to give them their first loss of the season. With Kelly back in the lineup, the Blue Devils are a force to be reckoned with. The problem for Duke is that when they have a bad shooting night, they don’t win (ex. ACC tourney vs. Maryland). I believe Louisville and Indiana have the two most complete squads in the nation. Duke’s inconsistency scares me. So, Louisville wins this game by single-digits. If their shooting isn’t on, they can rely on Dieng and their guards to drive the hole. Curry shoots well, but Benahan locks down Kelly and Louisville comes out on top. On to the Final Four.

Final Four – vs. Ohio St./New Mexico – The West is the weakest quarter of the bracket. If you don’t think so let me know. Wisconsin downs Gonzaga, New Mexico upsets Ohio St. and New Mexico beats Wisconsin in the Elite 8 to make it to the Final Four. I might be crazy picking New Mexico over Ohio St. but I’m sticking with it. Ironically, New Mexico does not match up well against Louisville. The Lobos have a solid big man in Alex Kirk (12/8 per game), but their greatest strength comes from beyond the arc in players like Tony Snell. If Snell is on (39% 3PT), they are very dangerous, but I always stay away from teams who rely too heavily on the 3 ball. Once again, Louisville’s athleticism and balance will come through. Also, Peyton Siva is going to eat Hugh Greenwood alive. Siva explodes for 25 points and Louisville is on to the Ship.

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National Championship – vs. Indiana/Miami – People are very high on Kansas. I’m not quite on board with that. I believe Indiana and Miami will be playing on the other side for the Natty. Miami proved they could win without tourney experience by taking the ACC tournament. Indiana is coming into the Dance with a chip on their shoulder after struggling in the end of the season. I think Cody Zeller is the best center in the nation, hands down. His inside dominance matched with their outrageous 41% team 3PT percentage takes them past Miami. Indiana vs. Louisville in the Final. This game is an absolute toss-up. I think Louisville is the better team in this matchup. However, I don’t think they’ll win. It’s just a gut instinct. Since about halfway through the season, I’ve thought Zeller has what it takes to lead his team to a National Championship. In an absolutely fantastic game of offensive dominance and lock down defensive bliss, Zeller will score 20 and raise the trophy in Atlanta. If Louisville wins I won’t be shocked. In a battle of the two most well-balanced teams in the nation, Indiana has the passion to win. Give them a 3-game series and Louisville wins 2 out of 3.

Louisville finishes a fantastic tournament run as the national runner up. Disagree? Come on, let me have it.