Fourth and Long

Wild Card Weekend Previews

by Caleb Musselman

It seems like just last week Ryan and I were writing our predictions for the 2012-13 playoffs. Now the new year brings with it playoff surprises, massively disappointing seasons and the reigning Super Bowl champs doing the bad kind of sitting at home watching; not the kind Seattle is doing. Just one year removed from claiming the #1 seed in the NFC, the Atlanta Falcons stumbled their way through a disastrous and injury riddled season that proved Matt Ryan is nothing without his weapons. The top of the AFC playoff picture looks surprisingly similar as both Denver and New England replicated their 2012-13 record on their way to clinching the first and second seeds once again. Houston (2-14) followed Atlanta off the deep end while Philadelphia rose from the ashes of a 4-12 season to claim the not so highly touted NFC East crown and the #3 seed in the NFC. As the dust settled after a crazy Week 17, the playoff picture may be set, but the nation is preparing for a wild playoff ride. Who expected the Ravens to win last year? Who expected the Chiefs to go from 2-14 to 11-5? Anything can happen in this game and this year's Wild Card Weekend is sure to pack it's share of surprises. 

Onto the match-ups.

#5 Kansas City (11-5) vs. #4 Indianapolis (11-5) 

photo cred: www.arrowheadpride.com

Kansas City travels into Indianapolis after a rather interesting season for both squads. Beginning the season 9-0 after a horrid 2-14 record last season, many were wary of possible deception due to a poor strength of schedule. After finishing the year 2-5, it seems the critics had some basis as the Broncos defeated KC twice and doomed them to the Wild Card. Headlined by a suffocating defense and a tremendous running game, the Chiefs have the pieces to make some noise. Indianapolis, on the other hand, waltzed through a season without much competition. While much was said about the weaknesses of the NFC East, the bottom three teams in the AFC South combined for a pungent 13-35 record on the year. This was undoubtedly the worst division in football. Because of the crap-shoot of teams in their division, the Colts seemed to struggle with consistency throughout the year. While Andrew Luck experienced a slight sophomore slump, the Colts managed some uncanny wins (San Francisco, Seattle, Denver) and some mysterious losses (Miami, San Diego, St. Louis). Without a myriad of offensive weapons, this Colts team seems a few coins short of a dollar in this year's playoffs. As they showed throughout the season, they could beat any team on any given day, but they seem to lack the consistency and dominant star power to put together a legitimate playoff run. 

photo cred: www.helmet2helmet.com

Prediction - In a game where the winner seems destined to have short-lived playoff hopes, these two teams will put on a show that will be a must-see game. In the end, the Chiefs have more weaknesses than Indianapolis. Further, they peaked much too soon in a sport that is all about momentum and streaks (ask Eli). Andrew Luck will get his first playoff win in a game that comes down to the wire while Viniatieri pounds a plethora of field goals through the uprights. A last second field goal gives the Colts a 26-24 victory. 

#6 New Orleans 11-5) vs. #3 Philadelphia (10-6)

photo cred: www.nfl.com

As an Eagles fan, I am still shocked every time I see that 10-6 mark next to Philly's name. A team that was floundering at 3-5 just a few weeks ago seems to have finally put all the pieces together at just the right time. Finishing the season on an impressive 7-1 streak marred only by an ugly defeat at Minnesota, the Eagles once again reign supreme in the NFC East and have earned a crucial home game against the Saints. New Orleans was 8-0 in the Superdome and only 3-5 when playing on the road. This is an extremely interesting match-up that I truly believe could go either way. Which Nick Foles will show up? The seven touchdown wonder or the timid youngster who lost 17-3 to Dallas a few weeks ago and showed glimpses of resurfacing in their Week 17 play-in game? Will the Eagles be able to put pressure on Brees? Will the Saints defense be able to contain Lesean McCoy? Both of these teams can put up points in bunches. The Eagles put up the fourth most points in the league while ranking 32nd in time of possession (an unbelievable stat). The Cowboys found out first hand in Week 17 how quickly the Eagles can make you pay for costly mistakes. As New Orleans travels into hostile Philadelphia for what promises to be an electric game, I truly believe this game will come down to coaching. Payton vs. Kelly - Visor vs. Visor. For Chip, he must resist the urge to fall into the Saints style of pass first football. If McCoy gets over 25 touches, the Eagles have a legitimate shot at winning this game. For Payton (and Ryan), he must find a way to pressure Foles and force the Eagles into some turnovers. Easier said than done. Finally, Brees must get Jimmy Graham involved early and often. The Eagles linebacking crew has been known to struggle against TEs. 

Prediction - My gut tells me the Eagles are a season away from beating the Saints in the playoffs. If this game was in NOLA I'd give the Saints a 10 point Wild Card win. In Philadelphia, the Eagles will fight til the bitter end. At the end of this one, a drive in the final two minutes capped by a Brees to Graham TD hookup gives the Saints a 34-30 victory. Watch out for Philly in 2014-15, but for now the Saints move on.

#6 San Diego (9-7) vs. #3 Cincinnati (11-5) 

This is the least interesting game of the playoffs. I truly believe neither of these teams have a shot at the Super Bowl, and not for a lack of talent. What about the Bengals? Dalton (Raggedy Andy) is not the right guy for that job and their running game isn't consistent enough for them to make a run. The Chargers stink. Easily the most inconsistent team in the league, Philip Rivers has, once again, found a way to personally excel while not leading his team to success. He's a great player but a poor leader. Dalton has better weapons and the
Cincinnati cold will leave Mr. Rivers high-tailing it back to paradise in Southern California with another great statistical season and another average team performance. It may seem like I'm minimizing the talent in this match-up. Don't get me wrong, the Bengals are a solid team. They just don't have a shot against the big guns in the league. 

Prediction - Dalton throws for 300 yards, 3 touchdowns and 2 interceptions as the Bengals cruise to a 31-23 win in a game that is never truly within reach for San Diego. Bye bye Philip. In another week, bye bye Andy. For now, the Bengals live to see another day. 

# 5 San Francisco (12-4) vs. #4 Green Bay (8-7-1)

The Green Bay Packers are not a good football team. Aaron Rodgers is a very good football player. Now that that is out on the table, let's move on. The 49ers are still my pick to win the Super Bowl. While Denver and Seattle have garnered the majority of the press in the second half of the season, San Francisco has not-so-quietly finished the season on a seven game winning streak to finish at an impressive 12-4. While the Niners struggled through the first half of the season with most of their weapons on the IR, they now have hit their full stride at the most opportune time. The 49ers vs. Aaron Rodgers. Somehow, Rodgers will still find a way to make it close. Kaepernick will have his usual solid but not flashy day while Gore rushes for 125 and the San Fran defense controls the field position battle all afternoon. 

Prediction - Rodgers, Cobb, Nelson and Lacy keep the Packers in the game but Green Bay's defense fails them at all the wrong times. San Francisco grinds down the Packer defense with long drives and critical 3rd down conversions throughout the game. Gore's bull-headed rushing style provides the Niners with a second half cushion and a late Rodgers comeback attempt falls short in the 4th quarter (give Rodgers a better D and this game is totally different). San Fran goes into Lambeau Field and flexes its way to a 34-24 victory over the Packers.

So there are my predictions. Any of these games could go either way, but that is the beauty of the NFL. For now, I'm sticking with my picks. Think I'm crazy? Clinically insane? Comment and give me your predictions and why you think I'm wrong. 

Goodness, I love the NFL.