Final Four Frenzy

And Then There Were Four...

photo cred: blogs.kansas.com

The media wants a story. ESPN wants hours worth of upset coverage. They want one of two things. They either want the feel-good story of Louisville winning for Kevin Ware, or they want Wichita St. to play the David role and take down the Goliath. David against Goliath. The out of no-where Shockers of Wichita St. arrive on the big stage and overcome outstanding odds to take down the #1 overall seed and advance to the championship game. It sounds like a great story right? Well, what if WIchita St. isn't a David figure? What if ESPN is forcing the little man role on a team that looks a lot more like Goliath's little brother? 

The Shockers eluded media hype all year and were a quick dismissal in most every bracket in the nation. Maybe you had them beating Pitt because you didn't trust the Panthers (which you shouldn't). Maybe you work behind a plow in Kansas and have them winning it all. Regardless, the fact is that this Wichita St. team has something special going on, and it clearly isn't FGCU material. This team isn't going to wow you with their scoring (117th PPG in the nation and 115th in FG%). What do they have on their side? Well for starters, offensive consistency. They were held under 60 points only 4 times all year. They may not blow you out of the gym but they have enough weapons to put up points in every contest. What else do they have? The list is long. They have balanced scoring. The Shockers have had a different leading scorer in three of their four tournament games. Further, their starting lineup scored 14,12,10, 9 and 8 points against the Buckeyes. Tell me a team's leading scorer only had 14 points and I have a hard time believing they had beaten Ohio St. 

photo cred: www.sportsillustrated.cnn.com

Next, they have a go-to guy. While the Shockers rely heavily on their balance, every team that goes deep in the tourney needs THAT guy. For Wichita St., Malcolm Armstead is the guy. Armstead scored 22 against Pitt and 18 against LaSalle. He's the guy who's going to get the ball at the end of the game. No surprise, he knows what to do with it. Next, they have a quick, athletic D. The Shockers have the size and strength (with Early and Hall) to hang with any team defensively. Finally, the Shockers have a lights out 3-point shooter. If you've seen Wichita St. play, you've undoubtedly noticed Baker on the floor. He is an electric freshman who averages 35% from beyond the arc. 

Now that I'm done my piece on Wichita St., let's get to the game. 

Wichita St. vs. Louisville - Saturday at 6:09pm

In my previous 3 articles leading up to the Final Four, I have praised Louisville for their dynamic play and their team chemistry. As I've stated before, Louisville is the most complete team in the nation. They have rolled through the tournament up to this point winning all but the Oregon contest by double digits. Putting an exclamation point on their run, they pounded a Duke team who seemed up to the task by 22 points. In my opinion, the only style of team that has a chance at Louisville is an athletic team with a solid defensive scheme. Does Wichita St. fit that description? It is certainly a possibility.

What to expect: 

From the opening tip, expect an up-tempo and electric first half. Both of these teams are quick starters. Against Ohio St., Wichita led 35-22 at the half. The Shockers showed incredible maturity for a team that had not been to the Elite 8 since 1981. Don't expect the lights to be too bright for this squad. Early blows will be thrown from each squad. 

photo cred: www.louisville.com

Next, expect Siva to dazzle. Peyton Siva has the best court vision of any point guard in the nation. Not always lighting up the scoring column, Siva maximizes the talent around him by driving and distributing. Which leads to my next point. Expect Russ Smith to get a LOT of attention. Smith has scored over 20 points in each of the Cardinals four tournament games. For Louisville, they understand that Smith has to get touches early and often because he can be a streaky shooter if he doesn't start off hot. For Wichita they know they must keep him quiet in the first 10 minutes. I expect coach Marshall to face guard Smith in the beginning of the game. Whether or not Smith hits his early looks will be a tell-tale sign of victory or defeat for the Cardinals. 

Next, expect Cleanthony Early to have a monster game. This kid is fantastic and the Shockers absolutely have to get him touches in the post if they plan on keeping up with Louisville. Undoubtedly, Hall and Early are going to battle the Louisville bigs all game long. Finally, expect this game to be tight throughout. Like a heavy-weight bout, these two teams will trade haymakers for 30 minutes. It's going to be the last 10 minutes that decide who moves on. 

photo cred: www.cardchronicle.com

Out of the 4 teams left, I think only Wichita St. and Syracuse have a legitimate shot at beating Louisville. Do I think Wichita St. can slow down the Cardinals roll? I think its more of a possibility than many are giving them credit for. The line is Louisville by 10.5 as of Thursday afternoon. Hear me on this, this game will be decided by single digits. If Wichita can hold Smith to below 20 and stay out of foul trouble I give them the slight edge. If Smith plays like he has been, Louisville will put together a late run and win by 5. I'm going with the latter.

Prediction - Louisville 77 Wichita St. 72

Game on.